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The Delta variant of Sars-CoV-2 is spreading. The latest example is Israel, where the vast majority of adults have been vaccinated. Still, cases there are on the rise again.
The delta variant of Sars-CoV-2 is on the rise. In the United Kingdom, it dominates the infection scene, accounting for at least 90 percent of infections. Within weeks, it had won out over the previously widespread alpha variant. It is also gaining ground elsewhere.
In Austria, there are about 734 Delta infections (as of June 29, 2021, according to AGES), Switzerland accounts for about 30 percent of infections (as of June 30), and in the United States, it is reported to account for about 25 percent. In Israel, known for its high vaccination coverage, Covid 19 cases are rising again because of it, up nearly 1ooo percent in the last two weeks (as of July 4), according to figures compiled by the New York Times. Yet a substantial portion of infected adults are dually vaccinated. For experts, however, this is no reason to doubt vaccination.
Moreover, a look at other figures puts the situation in Israel into perspective: the huge increase in percentage terms can be explained, among other things, by the fact that the country had registered almost no cases before the recent surge and had largely returned to a life without pandemic-related restrictions when the delta variant began its conquering march. In fact, three people out of every 100,000 contract the virus there every day, according to the Times. Fewer than 30 people in Israel are currently critically ill.
Of those infected, more than 50 percent are children, among whom only a few have been fully vaccinated in Israel as well. Of the 10- to 19-year-olds, a total of only 24 percent have received their vaccinations, and of the 12- to 15-year-olds, about 10 percent. Children and adolescents therefore provide an easy target for the highly contagious variant. Among adults, by contrast, 85 percent are fully vaccinated – as are more than half of newly infected adults. So does vaccination not work against Delta? Yes it does, say the experts.
They consider these figures neither surprising nor alarming. Vaccinations do not provide 100 percent protection, as is well known. A certain proportion of vaccinated people can become infected despite the vaccination because of an insufficient immune response. For example, the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine protects about 93 percent of double-vaccinated people from infection with alpha (the currently still predominant variant) and 88 percent from infection with delta. In each case, these figures refer to the risk of becoming symptomatically infected. Therefore, in Israel, where the vast majority of adults are vaccinated, a certain proportion of infections can be expected even among vaccinated individuals, the experts explain.
These data come from Great Britain, where the delta variant has been circulating for some time. The infection figures there already allow conclusions to be drawn about the risk of having to go to hospital as a vaccinated person. According to the study, the protective effect of vaccination against delta is comparable to that against the alpha variant. According to Public Health England, the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine protects 96 percent of people who are vaccinated twice against hospitalization, and the AstraZeneca vaccine protects 92 percent. Conversely, this means that people who have been vaccinated twice will also be found in hospital.
The picture is similar for deaths: The United Kingdom has now recorded deaths from Covid who were vaccinated twice. As of June 21, 117 people there had died with the delta variant; a good 40 percent of them were dually vaccinated. That, too, was to be expected, because the risk of dying doesn’t completely disappear with vaccination either: According to Public Health England, they reduce (for all variants combined) the mortality risk for those over 65 by 98 percent after two doses.
Vaccination therefore remains the tool of choice in the fight against delta. Israel has increased its vaccination rate by 500 percent in some cases, according to media there, and children 12 and older are now being vaccinated as well. Vaccine is available, and it must be used up as quickly as possible anyway: According to the Times of Israel, about 1.4 million doses will expire at the end of July. According to the newspaper, at least 600,000 of them are to be vaccinated before then, and interested parties are being sought for 800,000.
The United Kingdom, which has long focused on vaccinating as many people as possible once, is now trying to increase the rate of double vaccination. That’s because, according to Public Health England, limiting vaccination to just one dose results in a 17 percent reduction in protection against delta compared with alpha.
If delta spreads as efficiently as previous data suggested, then even a high vaccination rate will not suppress the variant, says Christian Münz of the University of Zurich. This is not necessarily negative, however: Every time a fully vaccinated person encounters the virus, it gives the immune protection a small boost, and that person’s immunity becomes more robust. The fact that the delta variant spreads in the summer in particular, against the background of low case numbers, is helpful. With a view to the winter, one must hope that by then a large part of the population in Austria or in other european countries will have been protected by double vaccination or infection. Because those who have not been infected or vaccinated by then will probably become infected.
The latest figures from Great Britain show that this does not necessarily have to have catastrophic consequences for hospitals. There, the number of infections continues to rise, while the number of hospitalizations is stagnating.
- source: nzz.ch/picture: pixabay.com
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