How effective are the Covid vaccines?

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As before, the effectiveness of the Covid vaccination is the dominant topic in vaccine-critical circles. On Facebook, for example, it is said that the number of vaccination breakthroughs in Austria is massively increasing. The same development had been shown in Israel. The fact that the “pandemic of the unvaccinated” is nothing but an advertising slogan can also be seen in the number of vaccinated people in Tyrolean hospitals. It is suggested that these data are evidence of insufficient vaccination effectiveness.

But the data do not show that the Covid vaccination is insufficiently effective. In purely statistical terms, as the proportion of the population vaccinated increases, so does the number of vaccine breakthroughs, because the more people who are vaccinated, the more often there is a possibility of infection despite vaccination. According to the Tyrolean clinics, vaccination helps well and prevents severe courses. Almost all patients with vaccine breakthroughs are immunosuppressed, very old, have cancer or an autoimmune disease, he said. What is true is that, according to studies, vaccine protection decreases somewhat after a few months, especially in the elderly.

The increasing number of vaccination breakthroughs
In fact, the proportion of vaccination breakthroughs is increasing in Austria. This can be seen in the regular reports on vaccination breakthroughs published by the Austrian Agency for Food Safety (AGES). The August 31, 2021 report, for example, states that since February, 3.15 percent of symptomatic Corona cases were fully vaccinated. A week later, the figure was 4.05 percent, and the following week, 5.03 percent. According to the September 22, 2021 AGES report, referenced in an oft-shared Facebook post, the proportion of vaccine breakthrough cases since February was 6.19 percent. A week later, it was 6.87 percent and currently 7.82 percent. Looking only at the last four calendar weeks (weeks 35-38), among symptomatic Corona cases, 28.70 percent were fully vaccinated.

However, this is not an indication that Corona vaccination is inadequately effective. From a purely statistical point of view, it is to be expected that if the proportion of vaccinated people in the population increases, the probability that there will be vaccinated people among the Covid 19 cases will also increase. This is explained by the fact that although vaccination works very well, not all infections can be prevented. Vaccine breakthroughs do not only occur with the Covid vaccine; they also occur with other vaccines: For example, influenza vaccination, measles vaccination, pertussis vaccination, hepatitis vaccination, chickenpox vaccination, or even TBE vaccination.

Some graphs on the AGES homepage further illustrate this statistical phenomenon: “The percentage of vaccination breakthroughs is increasing, but the number of diseases in the population as a whole is decreasing due to the protective effect of vaccination.” Accordingly, the number of vaccination breakthroughs also depends on the incidence of infection.

Corona cases in Tyrolean hospitals
As further evidence for the allegedly insufficient vaccination effectiveness, critics recently often cite the numbers of vaccinated people in Tyrolean hospitals mentioned by FPÖ politician Peter Wurm. “Critical medical experts” say that as of September 22, 67 percent of Corona patients in Innsbruck had been double-vaccinated, and 30 percent in intensive care. In Tyrol, the proportion of double-vaccinated patients in normal wards was 46 percent, and 34 percent in intensive care units, they said.

The Tyrolean provincial government does not collect official figures on vaccination breakthroughs, and AGES also has no precise data on Tyrol, as hospitals are not required by law to report these cases. Statements by individual physicians should therefore be treated with caution. However, individual hospitals do provide figures. According to the Tyrolean hospitals, for example, five of the eight Corona patients in the normal ward at the University Hospital of Innsbruck had been vaccinated (62.5 percent) as of October 6. Three of the ten Corona patients in the intensive care unit were vaccinated (30 percent). As of Sept. 22, as many as eight of the ten Corona patients in the normal ward had been vaccinated (80 percent). The ratio remained the same for ICU patients.

The apparently high numbers do not mean that the Corona vaccination is insufficiently effective, emphasize both the Tyrolean regional government, the AGES and the Tyrolean hospitals to the Austria Press Agency. On the one hand, it should be noted that vaccinated patients in hospitals who test positive are not automatically vaccine breakthroughs. In Tyrol, for example, according to the hospital spokesman, patients can also be in intensive care because of kidney failure, for example, who happen to test positive for Corona. These then count as Corona cases, but not as vaccine breakthroughs.

Patients with pre-existing conditions often affected
Citing pure percentages of vaccinated ICU patients often ignores how large or small the group of Corona ICU patients is overall. Many people who would have ended up in intensive care units because of Corona in the past no longer have to go there because of their vaccination protection. In Tyrol in particular, the number of intensive care patients in the individual wards is currently in the single digits, so it is a relatively small total. As a result, percentages can change significantly due to individual increases or decreases.

The Tyrolean clinics complain about the unreflected use of such percentages: “The vaccinated patients are mostly immunosuppressed (transplantation, autoimmune disease), oncological or very elderly patients. In this patient group, the vaccination either cannot develop its full protection, or the vaccination protection wears off more quickly and must be refreshed accordingly,” says the spokesman for the Tyrolean clinics. According to him, the Tyrolean figures are proof that vaccination helps well because it prevents severe courses. “The mere indication of vaccination rates in hospitalized patients without the associated individual medical histories gives a completely distorted picture,” says infectiologist and university professor Günter Weiss.

Study situation to the weakening protective effect of the vaccination
It is correct that there are indications that the protective effect of the Corona vaccination decreases with the time with certain groups, as among other things from an internal document of the traffic light commission, which is present to the APA. According to the document, the number of fully immunized patients in intensive care units is slightly on the rise. For this reason, a booster vaccination is recommended, especially for the older group of people, which results in very good antibody responses.

This is also indicated by several studies. According to a study by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (CDC) (September 2021), the efficacy of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine dropped to 77 percent within a few months. Moderna’s efficacy remained at 92 percent, according to the study. A UK preprint study (August 2021) also found that the efficacy of the Corona vaccine in the recent high incidence delta variant declined over time. According to two studies (here and here) in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine (October 2021), the immune response was “markedly reduced” six months after receiving the second dose. However, the second study described that protection against hospitalization and death had remained at a stable level.

Figures and data show that Covid vaccination is effective: a model calculation by the Department of Health reportedly estimates that Covid vaccination prevented nearly 2,200 deaths by the end of July. For nearly 5,800 people, the vaccination had prevented hospitalization.