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Thanks to the continuing high level of solar activity, there is a good chance of observing spectacular auroras in Austria again in 2025.
Super solar storms not ruled out
After some spectacular auroras in Austria at the end of last year, the chances of observing northern lights here in 2025 are also good. The reason for this is the continuing high level of solar activity, as Christian Möstl, Head of the Austrian Space Weather Office at GeoSphere Austria in Graz, explained to APA. He expects three to five intense solar storms next year, which have the potential to cause auroras in Austria.
Record levels of solar activity measured
Solar activity has been measured since the 18th century based on the number of sunspots and sunspot groups, from which the so-called “sunspot relative number” is calculated. This reaches a maximum approximately every eleven years; in 2024/25, our central star will be at the maximum of solar cycle no. 25.
Two records show how strong solar activity is: with 290 sunspots on 18 July, there was the highest daily value in 20 years, and in August, there was the highest monthly sunspot number of the past two decades with an average value of 215. “It is definitely to be expected that the sun should be at the same activity level in 2025,” Möstl emphasized.
“The number of sunspots is also strongly related to the number of solar storms that hit the Earth. This is because most of these events occur in these magnetically active regions of the sun,” said the expert. The sun hurls high-energy particles and magnetic fields into space during such eruptions. At the current peak of solar activity, there are around four solar storms per day, which go in all directions of interplanetary space.
Earth was hit by around 50 solar storms in 2024
Around 50 solar storms hit the Earth in the coming year—the highest number in the past two decades. “In our experience, around ten percent of these have the potential to cause auroras in more southerly latitudes, for example, in Austria,” says Möstl. In fact, four intense geomagnetic storms were recorded in 2024.
Such solar storms can disrupt GPS signals, power grids, satellites, and other technologies. The high-energy particles can also cause atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere to glow, creating the Northern Lights.
Spectacular northern lights can be observed in May.
On the night of 11 May, the strongest solar storm since 2003 produced spectacular northern lights in Austria, which could even be seen in the brightly lit city of Vienna. “This was certainly the best Northern Lights event ever photographed, especially thanks to the many smartphones, which capture the colors better than we can see with the naked eye,” says Möstl. On the night of 11 October, due to the weather, the luminous phenomena caused by a strong solar storm were also visible in the atmosphere in this country, mainly in western Austria.
In addition to solar activity, other factors play a role in observing the Northern Lights in our latitudes. Of course, the weather, especially the cloud cover, must be suitable, and the moon must not shine too brightly. The time of year and the arrival time of the solar storm are also important factors—it should not be light for too long, and people should still be awake when the phenomenon occurs.
There are hardly any problems with technical infrastructure due to solar storms
Although the solar storms in 2024 were very strong, they only caused a few problems with the technical infrastructure. According to Möstl, there were some disruptions to satellite navigation signals, for example, for agricultural machinery in large fields in the USA or GPS-controlled drones in Austria. The expert also said that additional currents were measured in the domestic power grid during the strong solar storms, but these did not cause any problems.
Möstl expects fewer solar storms in the years after 2025. However, these would tend to cause somewhat stronger effects in the waning phase of the solar cycle when they sweep across the Earth’s magnetic field. “This means there is still a chance of seeing the sky dance in Central Europe until 2027.”
New probes for early prediction of solar storms
In any case, scientists are very interested in predicting such solar storms as early as possible and understanding their structure. Möstl refers to several space missions dedicated to this topic. For example, the NASA probe “Stereo-A,” launched in 2006, was in a good position in May to measure the magnetic field of the intense storm a few hours before it hit the earth. The “Solar Orbiter” probe from the European Space Agency (ESA) also analyzed a solar storm long before it reached Earth in March.
In February 2025, the US space agency NASA will launch the “Punch” mission, consisting of four small satellites to observe solar winds and better understand how solar storms propagate to Earth. ESA is planning the “VIGIL” mission for 2031 to continuously observe the sun and detect potentially dangerous solar activity at an early stage.
– source: APA/picture: pixabay.com
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