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Initial models show that the chances of sunny, calm days are not too bad—even if there are still some uncertainties.
High pressure could bring stability
From the beginning of October, a large area of high pressure could build up over northern and northeastern Europe. For Austria, this would mean calm and largely dry weather. Although no warm Mediterranean air will be flowing our way, we could still see pleasant days with temperatures around or just above 20 degrees Celsius. Nights, on the other hand, would be rather cool, with temperatures sometimes dropping to single digits.
Influence of storms far away from us
While stability is possible here, severe weather conditions are occurring elsewhere. A so-called super typhoon named “Ragaza” grazed the northern Philippines (Asia) a few days ago and is now moving across the South China Sea (between southern China and Southeast Asia) towards China. Hong Kong (China) is also expecting heavy rainfall and severe storms.
Hurricane “Gabriel” has also formed in the Atlantic. It will affect the Azores (Portugal) in the coming days before weakening. However, it is not directly relevant for Austria.
Different calculations of weather models
The American model (GFS) predicts smaller low-pressure areas that could weaken the high pressure system in our region somewhat.
The European model (ECMWF), on the other hand, predicts a significantly stronger high pressure system that would supply Austria with dry and stable air.
If the ECMWF variant prevails, we could experience calm autumn weather in the first week of October.
Chances for sunny days over the long weekend
The long weekend around October 4 and 5 is particularly interesting. If the high pressure system remains stable, Austria could see many dry and sunny hours. However, the further into the future we look, the more uncertain the forecasts become. A low pressure system from the Mediterranean could still influence the weather south of the Alps.
Hardly any rain in sight
Precipitation calculations show that there will be hardly any rain in large parts of Europe in the coming week. Austria would also benefit from this. Only in the Mediterranean region – for example in Greece – could there be heavy showers and thunderstorms (note: Greece is located in southeastern Europe). For Austria, this means that the probability of significant rainfall is very low, especially in the first half of October.
Outlook: uncertainties remain
Whether October will actually be sunny and stable for long periods remains to be seen. Although the signs are currently favorable, later developments – such as low-pressure systems from Northern Europe – could still have an impact. At present, however, it looks as if we in Austria have a good chance of a golden start to October.
- source: wetter.at/picture: Bild von Petra Söhner auf Pixabay
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