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Climate crisis: UN report warns of 2.8 degrees of global warming by 2100. A 1.5-degree target is hardly achievable; climate protection remains urgent.
The climate crisis continues to worsen. According to the latest figures from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the planet is facing a dramatic 2.8-degree rise in temperature by the end of this century—measured against pre-industrial levels. Experts believe that the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will already be exceeded in ten years’ time.
Although there have been minimal improvements compared to last year—when the forecast was 3.1 degrees—there is no all-clear in sight. Even if all countries implemented their planned climate protection measures, warming could be limited to 2.3 degrees at best. “That is far from enough,” warns UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
To still achieve the 1.5-degree target, emissions would have to fall by a whopping 55 percent by 2035. However, current plans would only achieve a 15 percent reduction—and that’s with reservations. The US recently withdrew from the Paris Agreement, which further worsens the climate balance.
Even though 2024 is likely to be the hottest year since records began, the 1.5-degree target will only officially be considered missed if it is exceeded on average over several years. But the UN warns that even with immediate action, exceeding the target is almost inevitable—the decisive factor now is how much and for how long.
In addition to the danger of heat waves, floods, and crop failures, the report also warns of reaching so-called tipping points—critical thresholds beyond which the climate will change irreversibly. The UN sees the G20 countries as having a particular responsibility: although they are responsible for the majority of emissions, their CO₂ emissions continue to rise – by 0.7 percent this year.
Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope: the costs of wind and solar energy are falling rapidly, and the technology is there—what is missing is the political will. “We know what needs to be done,” said Guterres. “The time to act is now.”
The fact is that since the Paris Agreement, the warming forecast has been lowered—but without a change of course, the climate future will be scorching hot.
- source: heute.at/picture: pixabay.com
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