“Worse than COVID-19” – warning of a new pandemic

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The bird flu virus, which is currently rampant among wild birds, poultry, and mammals worldwide, could trigger a pandemic that is more severe than that caused by COVID-19. This is the warning issued by Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director of the Center for Respiratory Infections at the Pasteur Institute in Paris. The decisive factor is a possible mutation that would enable human-to-human transmission.

Humans do not have antibodies against the H5 bird flu strain currently in circulation. Unlike COVID-19, the virus could also kill healthy people and children, according to fears. Although the risk of such a pandemic is presently considered low by the World Organization for Animal Health, experts are calling for good preparation. Last week, the federal government also extended prevention measures to the whole of Austria.

“What we fear is that the virus will adapt to mammals – and especially to humans – become transmissible from person to person and thus become a pandemic virus,” Rameix-Welti told the Reuters news agency. Humans have antibodies against the seasonal flu viruses H1 and H3, but not against the H5 subtype, which currently affects birds and, increasingly, mammals. There was already no immunity among the population during the coronavirus pandemic.

Unlike COVID-19, which primarily affects older people or those with pre-existing conditions, a flu virus such as H5 can also kill healthy adults and children, the expert continued: “A bird flu pandemic would probably be quite serious, possibly even more serious than the pandemic we have experienced.”

In recent years, there have been repeated cases of H5 virus infections in humans, including the currently rampant subtype H5N1. These cases usually occurred in close contact with infected animals. Just this month, a person in the US was infected with H5N5. The man from Washington State died last week; he had pre-existing medical conditions.

International experts continue to classify the pandemic risk as low. Gregorio Torres, head of the science department at the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), said: “We must be prepared to respond in a timely manner. But for now, you can safely go for a walk in the woods, eat chicken and eggs, and enjoy life. A pandemic is possible, but the probability remains very low.”

Should a mutation occur, however, the world is better prepared this time than it was in 2020. “The positive point compared to Covid is that we have concrete preventive measures in place. There are already vaccine candidates, and we know how to produce vaccines quickly,” said Rameix-Welti. In addition, there are antiviral drugs that could specifically target the H5 virus.