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The spread of the variant first discovered in India is already at 25 percent in Austria. In a few weeks, it could already be credited with most new infections.
The so-called delta variant of the coronavirus, first detected in India, is also spreading rapidly in Austria. Virologist Andreas Bergthaler estimates that, based on AGES figures from the previous week, this mutation now accounts for 25 percent of new infections. In a few weeks, the delta variant could dominate 90 percent of case incidence. Bergthaler pointed out, however, that there are now significantly fewer cases.
For example, the case incidence was significantly higher at the beginning of January due to the spread of the alpha variant. “We currently have at least a tenfold lower infection incidence in absolute numbers than back in January. This facilitates contact tracing and, together with the seasonal effect, should also give us a chance to better control the absolute infection numbers,” the expert told APA. What is important now, he said, is whether the relative increase in the delta variant will also lead to a sharp rise in the absolute infection figures, and to what extent this will put a strain on our medical capacities.
At the beginning of June, in calendar week 23, the more contagious delta variant was still responsible for an estimated three percent of new infections, the following week it was already 13 percent and in the previous week just a quarter. “Even though these figures are subject to greater fluctuation, the trend is comparable to other European countries such as Germany with an estimated 15 percent or Sweden with 23 percent,” Bergthaler explained. This new variant is already dominant in Russia and England.
Now, however, the situation is “significantly better than in January. In addition to immunizing the population, it is particularly important to interrupt the chains of infection. Opening steps or individual behavior also play a role in the speed of spread. In England, the delta variant was brought into the country more than 1,000 times independently through travel, which is likely to have further accelerated the momentum there.
“Pandemic by no means over”
At any rate, there are currently very few cases in Austria, with an average of 106 new infections added daily last week. “These must be cleared up as quickly and efficiently as possible,” Bergthaler said. “However, the pandemic is by no means over. You can see with other countries how quickly it can go – even in the summer. The question is whether the absolute case numbers will also increase in our country,” the expert explained. “How the further growth in Austria will actually be, in my opinion, cannot be predicted with absolute certainty,” the virologist said.
According to the Ministry of Health, more than 50 percent of positive PCR samples in Austria undergo partial or whole genome sequencing (as part of selective or sentinel surveillance). In the APA interview, Bergthaler definitely spoke out against the closure of testing centers. It is important “that we are prepared if the numbers rise sharply or, for example, if special new variants circulate. Testing is a key component in this regard, in order to detect infections at an early stage and to effectively interrupt infection chains by means of contact tracing and quarantine. The aim of all this should be to prevent further major pandemic waves while at the same time taking measures that are as mild as possible,” Bergthaler demanded.
— source: kurier.at/picture: pixabay.com
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