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Due to the dominance of the Omicron virus variant, which has now also reached Austria, the Covid forecasting consortium in Austria assumes in its current calculation a strongly accelerated infection incidence, which will lead to an increase of Covid patients in normal wards in hospitals. Up to 17,000 new infections are expected in the coming week.
Next Wednesday (January 12), according to the experts’ calculations, there will certainly be more than 10,000 new infections within 24 hours. With high probability it will be more than 13,000, as a mean value 13,070 are assumed. In the worst case, there could be more than 17,000 new Corona cases within one day. By comparison, the previous record was 15,809 new infections on November 19, 2021, in the fourth wave – three days after which an Austria-wide lockdown went into effect. At that time, the seven-day incidence – the number of new infections in the past seven days per 100,000 inhabitants – was 1,050 – according to the consortium, this value should be reached next Wednesday, possibly significantly exceeded. If Omikron spreads particularly rapidly, a seven-day incidence of almost 1,400 is possible.
As far as the individual provinces are concerned, Tyrol can brace itself for quite a bit. A seven-day incidence beyond the 3,000 mark cannot be ruled out next Wednesday; the consortium is certain that it will be well above 1,800. The forecast also looks bleak for Salzburg and Vienna, where incidences of between 1,600 and 2,600 and 1,200 and 2,000, respectively, are expected. The lowest incidences should be in Styria (330 to 550) and Carinthia (340 to 560).
What these numbers mean for hospitals is still unclear. In this context, the forecasting consortium refers to “considerable uncertainties regarding the extent of reduction in virulence of the omicron variant.” Referring to data from the United Kingdom, where a reduction in virulence of the omicron variant compared with the delta variant has been observed, the forecasting consortium expects between 770 and 1,175 patients in Covid normal wards next Wednesday – on January 4 (data for January 5 were not yet available in the early afternoon, note), the number was 722. On January 19, the number of Covid patients in normal wards is expected to rise to well over 1,200.
On the intensive care units, where 316 seriously ill patients were treated last, the coating will decrease according to the calculations of the consortium, for which the portion of the double and triple vaccinated persons as well as visibly younger concerning in the infection happening are decisive. Next Wednesday, there will be between 220 and 280 covid patients in the intensive care setting, and up to 300 the following week, according to the forecasting consortium.
- source: APA/picture:
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