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The Omicron variant takes the speed of the corona pandemic to a new level. Tactically and communicatively, the next wave is also a huge problem.
It’s easy, soon to be two years into the pandemic, to be tempted to describe what’s happening in terms of human morality or even fairness. Isn’t it incredibly mean that now, of all times, when vaccines are available and the vast majority of people are ready to help fight the virus, this new variant emerges? Which is apparently also a “turbo plague,” a version of the virus that is spreading faster than any before?
But viruses are not people. They are not enemies of war or politics. They are aliens, blind, ruthless, insatiable miniature monsters that often kill their own hosts in their insatiable need to reproduce. And which, thanks to their immense reproductive capacity, also constantly get new opportunities to mutate. And thus adapt even better to the defense strategies of their hosts. We’re witnessing that again right now.
Because this is so difficult to accept emotionally, the aggression that this overrunning triggers shifts. Usually on other people. Sometimes with more justification, sometimes with less. And sometimes in line with the facts, sometimes in contradiction to them.
This is crazy, considering the fact that with a vaccination you protect human lives, while with a refusal to vaccinate you endanger human lives – not least your own.
The facts are: Covid-19 is a dangerous disease that kills many people and causes dire long-term consequences for others. It can be contained and mitigated with vaccination. It spreads extremely quickly if left unchecked.
So quickly, in fact, that even the healthcare systems of the world’s richest countries will eventually be overwhelmed. And, to make matters worse, at some point other systems that societies need to function will also be overwhelmed.
We now know very well what we need to do to keep this disease at bay. Vaccinations are still the most important tool, because they can reduce the probability of infection, or at least that’s how it has been so far. And, hopefully, they will minimize or at least reduce the risk of becoming seriously ill.
Omicron, however, appears to be a so-called escape mutant, according to a recent study from Great Britain, for example. The altered virus is apparently far more likely to infect people who have already had a corona infection – as well as vaccinated people.
How Omicron is overrunning Europe
This new British study estimates that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times higher than with the Delta variant. Even the twice-vaccinated and even the boostered can apparently be infected by Omicron, even symptomatically. Being boostered still provides good, but far from perfect, protection.
Incredibly fast
Most importantly, Omicron is incredibly fast, both in some organ regions and within a population. In the UK, the doubling time of Omicron among corona cases is currently estimated at two days. Anyone who has ever studied exponential growth knows what that means: an inconceivable acceleration.
And whether Omicron actually causes milder courses on average is unclear at the moment. What is clear is that those who are unvaccinated remain at great risk.
Omicron apparently also multiplies incredibly quickly in the human bronchial tubes. According to a study from Hong Kong, it is about 70 times faster than the delta variant. This could also explain why the new variant seems to be so extremely contagious: newly infected people presumably have a lot of viruses to spread in the upper respiratory tract within a very short time. In return, omicron probably multiplies more slowly deeper in the lungs.
“Do everything. Do it consistently”
The responsible institutions have long been sounding the alarm – as loudly as their positions allow. The director of the European public health agency ECDC said “strong action must be taken urgently.”
And the director of WHO said this week, “Even if Omicron causes less severe disease, the sheer volume of cases could overwhelm unprepared health systems.”
He also named the seeming paradox of the new situation: “Vaccines alone will not get any country out of this crisis.”
It can’t be about “vaccinations instead of masks,” “vaccinations instead of spacing rules,” “vaccinations instead of airing or washing hands”: “Do everything. Do it consistently. Do it right.”
The pandemic is not over, quite the opposite. The virus couldn’t care less if we think it’s “unfair.”
People who are familiar with the matter now agree: an omicron wave could also overtake Western industrialized nations so quickly, making so many people sick at the same time, that it would bring important social systems to their limits. Not only will there be dramatic consequences if too many people need intensive care beds, if too many doctors and nurses fall ill or have to be quarantined. Above a certain level of sickness, local transport, the police and other systems will also run into difficulties.
It therefore remains a central task of politics, society and the healthcare system to ensure that as many people as possible are vaccinated as comprehensively as possible, preferably three times.
At the same time, what could be called the Omicron paradox is now hitting us: Even against the new variant, only vaccination will help – but vaccination alone will not be enough.
- hp/picture: pixabay.com
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