The expert report warns of new Corona wave in autumn

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The expert commission on compulsory vaccination assumes that a new and possibly massive corona wave can “very probably” be expected in autumn.

Compulsory vaccination in Austria will be suspended

If one is not adequately prepared for this, there could again be drastic Corona measures up to and including lockdowns. However, an immediate vaccination obligation is “not necessary” or “not appropriate. “A postponement would have the advantage that the measure could no longer be necessary.

Corona wave expected in autumn: Lockdowns also possible

According to the experts, their current implementation would only be legally possible for neither vaccinated nor recovered people. However, there are medical and legal arguments for postponing the implementation of compulsory vaccination for this group, as well as the experts, write.

Compulsory vaccination still makes sense.

However, the report also states that vaccination is a central element in coping with the pandemic: “The basic vaccination obligation as a tried and tested means of ensuring a high vaccination rate continues to make sense in principle to avoid overloading the health system,” the report states.

According to the experts, the current implementation of compulsory vaccination would only be legally possible for people who are neither vaccinated nor recovering. This is because triple immunization by autumn can only be achieved if vaccination is started shortly.

However, if and when depends on several factors, such as the epidemiological development, the extent to which immunity decreases due to vaccination or disease, the value of therapies as a possible substitute for vaccination, or the further result of vaccination acceptance.

Up to 58,000 new Corona infections are possible in autumn.

However, the Commission warns against underestimating what is happening. According to modeling, there would be only ten percent protection against infection in October and only 35 to 50 percent against severe disease. Therefore, another vaccination is needed in late summer or early autumn. Otherwise, there could be up to 58,000 new infections daily and 1,700 to 3,000 intensive care beds occupied.

Ongoing monitoring and a re-evaluation of the situation in three months at the latest, considering the current state of science, is crucial. At that time, there should be more clarity about the medical factors. At the same time, there should be sufficient time to initiate the implementation of compulsory vaccination at the medically optimal time, if necessary.

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