More than 2,000 Corona-positive patients in two weeks on normal wards?

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Experts from the Covid forecasting consortium do not think it is impossible that hospitals will have to treat more than 2,000 corona-positive patients in normal wards in the future.

While the federal capital has now also lifted the mask requirement in public transport, courthouses, and official buildings, corona figures and, thus, the number of hospitalized Covid 19 patients in Austria have recently risen again. The Covid Prognosis Consortium’s current assessment assumes that a further increase will be expected in normal wards.

More than 1,500 Corona-positive patients in hospitals
1,582 Corona-positive patients were in domestic hospitals Tuesday, 86 of whom were in intensive care units. Austria’s seven-day incidence (number of new infections per 100,000 population, note) was 435.8, with Vienna peaking at 639.7 among the provinces (as of February 28). The district with the highest incidence reported by the Agency for Health and Food Safety’s (AGES) Covid-19 dashboard was Burgenland – Oberpullendorf had 852.1 confirmed corona infections per 100,000 inhabitants. However, the current situation is put into perspective when looking at the situation a year ago. On February 28, 2022, more than 20,000 new infections were registered, the seven-day incidence at that time was 2,073.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and most importantly, 2,435 people were hospitalized with a Corona infection, 189 of whom required intensive care.

More than 2,000 Corona-positive patients in normal wards?
Regardless of this, the experts of the Covid forecasting consortium do not consider it impossible that more than 2,000 Corona-positive patients will again have to be treated in normal wards in hospitals in two weeks. In the current calculation model, a minimum value of 1,224 and a maximum value of 2,257 is given for the cut-off date of March 15. The calculated mean value is 1,744. However, the situation remains stable in the intensive care unit (ICU) sector, with a projected mean value of 94. “Despite the recent increase in plaque, Covid-specific plaque is expected to remain below last year’s peak levels over the forecast period,” the consortium points out.

64 percent increase
In its weekly Corona report last Monday, AGES noted that the number of hospital patients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased 64 percent in two weeks. In intensive care units, covid-19 bed occupancy has more than doubled. However, only 24 percent of all hospitalized Corona cases are admitted to normal wards because of Covid-19 symptoms. In contrast, over three-quarters of patients who tested positive were admitted to the hospital for other reasons. Thus, in 76 percent of cases, the primary diagnosis is no longer covid-19 – a significant shift considering the pandemic. In the period since the pandemic outbreak, the proportion of patients with covid-19 as a secondary diagnosis is 54 percent.

In several cases, data from wastewater surveillance – currently available through February 22 – suggest a temporary end to the upward trend in infection incidence. Further increases in laboratory-confirmed cases are therefore not expected until the middle of the month, according to the Covid forecasting consortium.