Leading Candidates to Succeed Pope Francis

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The selection of the next pope is always unpredictable, but several cardinals are widely seen as frontrunners based on their prominence, experience, and alignment with different factions within the Catholic Church. The next pope will be chosen by a conclave of cardinals under the age of 80, many of whom were appointed by Pope Francis, potentially favoring candidates who share his progressive vision.

Most Frequently Mentioned Contenders

Name	Country	Age	Profile & Strengths	Notable Weaknesses/Controversies
Luis Antonio Tagle	Philippines	67	Known as the “Asian Francis,” a progressive, champion of social justice, head of Vatican evangelization	Past issues at Caritas Internationalis
Pietro Parolin	Italy	70	Vatican Secretary of State, seasoned diplomat, seen as a centrist and stabilizer	Linked to the Vatican financial scandal, China deal
Peter Turkson	Ghana	76	Advocate for social justice, climate change, would be the first African pope in centuries	Less discussed as a frontrunner recently
Peter Erdő	Hungary	72	Leading conservative, canon law expert, appeals to traditionalists	May be seen as too conservative for many
Matteo Zuppi	Italy	69	Progressive, close to Francis, active in peace/humanitarian work, head of the Italian Bishops’ Conference	Concerns about influence from Sant’Egidio
Pierbattista Pizzaballa	Italy	60	Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, strong diplomatic experience, international profile	Considered young for the papacy
Mario Grech	Malta	67	General secretary of the Synod of Bishops, seen as a compromise candidate	Less well-known globally
Robert Sarah	Guinea	79	Conservative, critic of gender ideology, strong on tradition	Seen as polarizing

Key Factions and Trends

Progressive/Francis-aligned: Tagle, Zuppi, Grech, and, to some extent, Parolin are seen as likely to continue Francis’ reforms, focusing on social justice, inclusion, and a global church.
Conservative: Erdő and Sarah represent a potential return to traditional doctrine and discipline, appealing to those dissatisfied with Francis’ direction.
Diplomats and Moderates: Parolin and Pizzaballa are valued for their diplomatic skills and ability to manage the Vatican’s global relationships, which may be especially important given current geopolitical tensions.

Notable Factors

Geographical Diversity: Tagle would be the first Asian pope, Turkson the first African in modern times, and Parolin would restore the papacy to Italy after decades of non-Italian popes.
Scandals and Controversies: Parolin has faced criticism for his role in Vatican financial scandals and the China deal, while Tagle’s management at Caritas Internationalis has raised questions.
Age and Tenure: Some cardinals may hesitate to elect a younger pope who could serve for decades, potentially blocking others’ chances in the future.

The Unpredictability of the Conclave

Despite the speculation, Vatican watchers caution that conclaves are notoriously unpredictable. Pope Francis himself was a surprise choice in 2013, and the diversity among the current cardinal electors, many of whom were appointed by Francis, makes forecasting especially difficult this time.

“Anybody is going to be unexpected at this point, in some ways.” — Bill Cavanaugh, Catholic theologian.

Summary Table: Top Papal Candidates

Conclusion

The most frequently cited frontrunners are Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy), Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana), Cardinal Peter Erdő (Hungary), and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy). The choice will reflect whether the cardinals wish to continue Pope Francis’ progressive legacy or shift back toward a more traditional stance. Nevertheless, the conclave process is secretive, and a surprise outcome remains possible.

-sources: https://www.yahoo.com/news/could-succeed-pope-francis-eight-083611778.html, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/21/new-pope-elected-succeed-francis-conclave-cardinals-vatican/

picture: canva.com