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Putin sent 250,000 soldiers, but his war of aggression is faltering violently. The most important thing would be to stop the fighting immediately. OE24.at published five possible scenarios that would stop the war in Ukraine.
SCENARIO 1: Putin wins, a horror for all. Russian soldiers march into Kyiv. Ukraine President Selenskyj and Kyiv city leader Klitschko have to flee. Putin installs a puppet government. It would have to govern against the will of the Ukrainians – impossible. An underground war would be the result. But experts think a Putin victory is out of the question.
SCENARIO 2: Mariupol falls, the war ends on 9 May. The port city of Mariupol is 90 percent destroyed. If it fails, Putin’s land route from Russia to the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014 would be free for it. That would be a partial success for Putin; he could sell it as a victory and bring his troops home from Ukraine by 9 May. On the same date, Russia defeated the Nazis in World War 2.
SCENARIO 3: Putin loses, the coup against him. His blitzkrieg has already failed; only one significant city is in the hands of the Russian army. Kherson in the south has just been recaptured; in the north of Kyiv, the Russians have been pushed back 35 kilometers. In the northeast, they even have to take refuge in Russian territory. The attacking troops could indeed be defeated on a broad front; the Red Army would be disenchanted. That would probably be the political end of Putin and his clique in Moscow.
SCENARIO 4: The war goes on for years. A pure war of position could last for years. Cities like Kyiv or Kharkiv are bombed and starved in the “Sarajevo model,“ the population is wholly demoralized, but there is no solution.
SCENARIO 5: Compromise, Ukraine becomes neutral. Ukraine rules out nato as well as EU membership; the country becomes “neutral.“ President Selenskyj would agree to this (after a referendum).
- source: 5 Szenarien für ein Kriegsende (oe24.at)/picture: Image by ELG21 from Pixabay
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