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In their latest analysis, experts from the Covid Forecasting Consortium predict that coronavirus trends will continue to be very positive. For example, new infections are expected to level off at about 760 daily next week. In addition, fewer than 300 Covid-19 intensive care patients are expected on Monday. The seven-day incidence per 100,000 population is expected to drop to 55.9 cases next Wednesday, according to the forecast.
According to experts, the decline indicates favorable environmental factors in all states and neighboring countries (e.g., seasonality). The effective reproduction number was around 0.85 in recent days, meaning that one infected person infects less than one other person.
The case forecast assumes a continuation of the downward trend in cases for all federal states throughout Austria. The opening steps decided for the coming Wednesday have no influence on the present prognosis, stressed the experts. The development in the individual federal states continues to vary considerably. The range of seven-day incidence for May 19 ranges from 28 in Burgenland to 92 in Vorarlberg, which was the first province to open catering already in mid-March.
The situation continues to ease in intensive care units. According to the forecast, 292 Covid 19 patients will have to be cared for in intensive care units next Monday, compared with 344 today, Wednesday, and 208 critically ill patients in two weeks, on May 26. This reduces Covid ICU beds from 17 percent to 10 percent of the total reported adult ICU bed capacity (2,056) over the forecast period.
sources: APA and vienna.at/picture:pixabay.com
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