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An expert says the delta variant of the coronavirus, AY.4.2, is even “more contagious” than the previous version.
A new lineage of the delta variant of the coronavirus, AY.4.2, is increasingly turning out to be “even more contagious than delta,” warns Ulrich Elling, group leader at the IMBA (Institute for Molecular Biotechnology) of the Academy of Sciences.
So far, he says, more than 20,000 cases have been reported in the United Kingdom, about 1,000 in continental Europe and “a good 30” in Austria. The only “fair and effective measure” now, he said, is mandatory vaccination, “at least above a certain age.”
“This line has two more mutations in the spikes of the spike protein that we vaccinate with than Delta already has,” Elling explained. It is still unclear why this subtype is spreading, he said. “But the epidemiological growth rates show a clear trend that this lineage is still ten to 15 percent more contagious than Delta. So AY.4.2 brings some exacerbation to the situation.”
Alpha variant was 50 percent more contagious than original variant
For context, the alpha variant was 50 percent more contagious than the original variant of SARS-CoV-2; delta was 60 percent more contagious than alpha. “So the step that comes with AY.4.2 is smaller. It is also smaller than the step that the approaching winter will bring, because that is estimated to be 40 percent increased contagion,” the expert opined. He added that the winter effect is already evident with the significantly increasing numbers in Austria and across Europe.
The current hope is that the pandemic “will turn into a more or less harmless endemic”, i.e. a situation in which a pathogen circulates stably in the population. Whether this continues to threaten hospitalization rates and death rates depends on immunity to contagion versus immunity to disease, he said.
“If immunity to infection drops significantly earlier than immunity to disease, then hopefully we’ll reach a situation where we’re regularly infecting, thus naturally ‘boosting,’ and no longer getting sick,” Elling said. Corona would then “become a cold,” so to speak.
Covid-19, however, has “never been a cold” but a severe pneumonia, he said, in addition to Long-Covid. “Other seasonal coronaviruses circulate every one to three years in the winter. So, should we become infected ‘only’ every winter or every other winter in an endemic situation, it may well be that natural immunity is too weak by then to provide sufficient protection against disease,” the expert elaborated. In that case, Covid-19 would lead to recurrent overuse of the health care system.
Because Austria has missed its vaccination targets, the ECDC (European Center for Disease Control) believes it will take a contact reduction of at least 20 percent to avoid exceeding the previous year’s hospitalization rate. “Meanwhile, the immunity of the vaccinated is probably declining faster than new vaccinees are being added,” Elling said.
“Vaccines against respiratory infections just don’t produce sterile immunity. So SARS-CoV-2 is not eradicated by vaccination, as it was for smallpox,” the researcher explained.
- source: k.at/picture:pixabay.com
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