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Experts from the Covid Prognosis Consortium predict that a plateau in infection incidence occurs in Austria. Corona case numbers remain at a high level.
According to the scientists, the omicron subtype BA.2 is now dominant throughout Austria, the experts reported Wednesday in their weekly preview. For hospitals, the trend is expected to remain relatively constant.
Number of intensive care patients declines – more covid patients expected in normal wards
Continued favorable trends are expected in intensive care units, while the number of patients in normal units is expected to continue to rise, at least this week. Today, Wednesday, 190 Covid patients required care in the intensive care unit (ICU). Next Wednesday, between 162 and 216 ICU patients are expected, followed in two weeks by between 146 and 236 (March 16).
Normal wards are required to care for 2,432 Covid-19-infected patients today. Their number is expected to increase further this week. For Saturday – the day when Corona protective measures fall in Austria, experts expect a confidence interval of between 2,181 and 2,642 infected people in normal wards. Next Wednesday, between 2,067 and 2,724 patients are then forecasted. In two weeks, on March 16, scientists expect 1,840 to 3,010 hospitalized patients, and the conditionally meaningful point estimate will be 2,353 patients, about 80 fewer than yesterday, Wednesday.
Corona new infections primarily all due to omicron subtype BA.2
Infection activity continues to be driven by the rise of omicron subtype BA.2. Since subtype BA.1 is declining simultaneously, the infection incidence is plateauing in the majority of the federal states. Experts expect the BA.2 wave will peak in the next two weeks if this trend continues. However, the opening steps scheduled on March 5 could delay the reach of this peak.
Second-highest level of new Corona infections in Austria on Wednesday
On Wednesday the second-highest level of new infections had been recorded, with nearly 40,000 cases added within 24 hours and a seven-day average of 27,665. The seven-day average is expected to remain similarly high, at 27,000 new infections, in the coming week. However, the calculated range of variation is vast, ranging from 22,128 to 36,430 for next Wednesday. The experts gave the point estimate for March 9 as 27,608.
A seven-day incidence in the range of 1,700 to 2,900 cases per 100,000 population is expected next Wednesday. Experts cited the point estimate of 2,200 as the mean value – which is higher than today’s Wednesday incidence of 2,168. The lowest incidence is expected in Carinthia (between 1,400 and 2,200) and the highest incidence in Lower Austria (between 2,100 and 3,400).
— sources: APA/vienna.at/picture: pixabay.com
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