Corona forecast: infection numbers remain higher this summer than in 2021

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The Covid forecast consortium continues to assume a gradual transition to a steady fall trend. The curve of new Corona infections will flatten, though a drop to the levels of the summers of 2020 or 2021 is not expected.

According to the Wednesday update, dampening seasonal effects will be countered by the progressive decline in acquired immune protection.

Corona forecast on omicron variants BA.4/BA.5.
In addition, the full impact of the April 16 relaxations has also unfolded, it said. He said that the decline in case numbers would end in the medium term based on these developments. The new omicron variants BA.4/BA.5, already dominant in South Africa, were detected sporadically in Austria. According to international observation data, these variants are likely to have a growth advantage over the precursor variants BA.1/BA.2/BA.3. In Austria, however, the new coronavirus types have not yet been detected in sufficient numbers to be relevant to the present prognosis. Their virulence has not yet been conclusively assessed, but they are not considered variants of concern according to the EU health agency ECDC.

New corona infections continue to decline in Austria.
The decline in coronavirus case numbers in recent weeks continues to translate into a decreasing hospital burden. On Wednesday, this stood at 1,028 covid patients in normal and 83 in intensive care units (ICU). Their numbers should drop to between 681 and 942 in the normal care area and between 55 and 76 in the ICU in the coming week, settling between 477 and 843 in the normal care units and between 40 and 66 in the ICU area the following week (May 18). Thus, there could be fewer than 1,000 hospitalized covid patients next week in an ideal scenario.

Coronavirus: forecast of new infections in the coming week.
The panel expects 3,724 to 6,131 new corona infections within 24 hours in Austria next Wednesday (May 11), with a point estimate of 4,647, meaning a seven-day incidence in 290 to 480 cases per 100,000 population (68 percent confidence interval) is expected. A point estimate of 360 can be reported as the mean. With a probability of 2.5 percent, a 7-day incidence above 630 or below 210 is also possible. The lowest incidence is expected in Vorarlberg (68 percent CI: 180-300) and the highest incidence in Vienna (68 percent CI: 410-680).

  • source: APA/picture: pixabay.com
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