The current estimate from the Covid forecasting consortium continues to assume a gradual transition to a steady case trend.
While experts anticipate a flattening of the epidemiological curve, infection numbers are not expected to drop to the levels seen in the summers of 2020 or 2021: Dampening seasonal effects are countered by the progressive decline in acquired immune protection, according to the Wednesday update.
New Corona variants BA.4 and BA.5 are also in Austria
In addition, the full effect of the April 16 relaxations has also unfolded, it said. He said that the decline in case numbers would end in the medium term based on these developments. The new omicron variants BA.4/BA.5, already dominant in South Africa, were detected sporadically in Austria. According to international observation data, these variants are likely to have a growth advantage over the precursor variants BA.1/BA.2/BA.3.
However, the new types have not yet been detected in sufficient numbers in Austria to be relevant for the present prognosis. Their virulence has not yet been conclusively assessed, but they are not considered variants of concern according to the EU health agency ECDC.
In recent weeks, the decline in the number of cases translates into a decreasing hospital load. This stood at 1,028 covid patients in regular wards and 83 in intensive care units (ICU) on Wednesday. Their numbers should drop to between 681 and 942 in the normal-care area and 55 to 76 in the ICU area in the coming week, settling between 477 and 843 in the normal-care wards and between 40 and 66 in the ICU area the following week (May 18). Thus, if things go ideally, fewer than 1,000 total hospitalized Covid patients could be next week.
6,769 new corona cases in Austria
The panel expects 3,724 to 6,131 new infections within 24 hours in Austria next Wednesday (May 11), with a point estimate of 4,647, meaning a seven-day incidence in the range of 290 to 480 cases per 100,000 population (68 percent confidence interval). A point estimate of 360 can be reported as the mean. With a probability of 2.5 percent, a 7-day incidence above 630 or below 210 is also possible. The lowest incidence is expected in Vorarlberg (68 percent CI: 180-300) and the highest incidence in Vienna (68 percent CI: 410-680).
- source: k.at/picture: pixabay.com
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