What will Austria see in terms of new Corona infections in July? Experts expect a seven-day incidence of between 922 and 1,518 for the first Wednesday of the new month.
12,509 new cases on Wednesday
Omicron subvariants BA.4/BA.5 are dominant for corona infection incidence in Austria, driving the increase in case numbers currently being observed. The forecasting consortium presented this less optimistic outlook on Wednesday. According to the consortium’s prevalence estimate, variants BA.4/BA.5 are responsible for about 80 percent of Corona cases in Austria.
Over 19,000 new Corona infections next Wednesday?
For July 6 – the last forecast day – the experts thus expect a seven-day incidence of between 922 and 1,518 across Austria, with a point estimate of 1,200 as the mean value. In terms of daily case numbers, this means that up to 19,473 cases can be expected on the last day of the forecast. Accordingly, the mean would be just under 15,000. As of today, Wednesday, 12,509 new infections were reported, and the seven-day incidence was 707.8.
The experts’ assessment has flipped quite a bit since the beginning of the month. While the Covid forecasting consortium expected a downward trend at the beginning of the month, the incidence of infections increased with domination by the BA.4/5 subvariants. A sharp increase in hospital numbers was already expected in the previous week.
Impact on the development of corona situation in hospitals
The development of case numbers also affects the development of the Corona situation in hospitals. The 856 hospital patients reported today should rise above 1,000 in the coming week. The experts expect up to 1,499 patients in the normal wards next Wednesday, and by the last forecast day for the hospital flooding on July 13, it could be up to 2,598, or at least 1,327. In intensive care units, the experts consider an increase from 47 today to up to 83 in one week and 134 in two weeks possible. The mean was 72 next week and 100 in two weeks.
But the consortium also acknowledged that the forecast is complicated “by above-average fluctuations in reported cases, which are also observed in daily variations in seven-day incidence, which is usually robust to daily outliers.” And there is likely to be a high number of unreported cases: Increased positivity rates suggest as much.
Corona: Seven-day incidence quadrupled
For context, the seven-day incidence has quadrupled since the month’s beginning. On June 1, it was 173.5. The proportion of positive PCR tests also increased by more than four. The weekly average positive rate is 8.5 percent, compared to 1.8 percent at the beginning of the month.
- source: vienna.at/picture: pixabay.com
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