Forecast: Corona wave fills hospitals with infected patients

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Covid hospital patients are projected to increase further by the end of the month, experts say. Up to 3,900 Corona-infected patients are expected to be seen in normal wards.

As a result of the current Corona wave, a further increase in Covid patients in hospitals is expected. A preliminary peak may be reached by the end of October, with the Covid Forecast Consortium projecting that 2,360 to 3,900 Corona-infected patients will require treatment in normal wards and 130 to 200 in intensive care units (ICU) in two weeks (Oct. 26). Currently, 130 are being cared for in the ICU area and 2,418 in normal wards.

Experts locate stagnation in Corona infection numbers
Regarding infection incidence, experts currently see a stagnation in the number of cases registered daily, which can also be seen from the viral load in wastewater.

Notwithstanding this, unplanned staff absences related to SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals have increased to around seven percent compared to the previous week. However, due to no further sharp increase in the number of cases, there should be a time lag before hospitals see relief.

Seasonal winter effects cannot be estimated.
A flattening of the case numbers can currently be observed in all age groups, and there is already an apparent decline in the five to 14-year-olds. “In individual federal states, a preliminary trend reversal toward declining case numbers may already have occurred,” the forecast states.

However, the experts caution that with the full onset of seasonal winter effects, infection pressure will rise again. Estimating how much infection numbers will spike as temperatures drop is impossible. The Covid forecasting consortium points out that no data is available on the population’s suspected under-reporting and declining immunity.

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