ChatGPT favored the Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle as the most likely successor to Francis

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On Wednesday, the AFP news agency asked four artificial intelligence (AI) chat programs about their predictions. But AI is also struggling to come up with clear answers to the question of the papal succession, which is not only keeping Vatican insiders and betting shop operators around the world on tenterhooks.

Since Pope Francis’s death on Easter Monday, the Catholic Church has been in mourning, and speculation about his successor has begun. However, the outcome of the conclave, in which cardinals decide on the next pope in a secret procedure, remains a mystery for now, even for AI. The chat programs surveyed by AFP do not agree on who will win the race.

Grok and Gemini back Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Grok, by tech billionaire Elon Musk, and Google’s chatbot Gemini both backed the same leading candidate, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, out of eight candidates discussed. “Based on recent analysis and prominent discussions, Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerges as a strong contender,” Gemini responded.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT made it clear that it was not a “crystal ball” but made a prediction based on “probabilities and current discussions and data.” The AI program favored the Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle as the most likely successor to Francis, as he resembled the late Pope as an advocate for the poor, migrants, and marginalized.

AI systems calculate probabilities
However, all the chat programs surveyed emphasized that it is almost impossible to predict the papal election’s outcome reliably. “Predicting the next pope involves factors beyond data analysis,” Gemini replied. The age and theological orientation of the cardinals and the absolute secrecy of the election process are elements that go beyond any algorithmic analysis.
The French company Mistral AI chatbot surprised users by refusing to speculate: “I am not in a position to predict (…) who the next Pope will be,” was its response. Mistral recommended “following reliable news sources” for accurate information about the papal election.