After the funeral is before the conclave: what happens next in the Vatican

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The funeral of Pope Francis in the Vatican is followed by the election of his successor, the conclave. Within 15 to 20 days of the funeral in the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals will elect the new pope in private.
Now, it’s all about who the successor will be. Although the conclave to elect the 267th pontiff will begin on no date (although many expect May 5 or 6), names are already being bandied about.

Until white smoke rises
The decision will be made in a highly old-fashioned way that still fascinates the world today: In the Sistine Chapel, all cardinals under the age of 80 will sit locked together (in Latin: cum clave, with the key) until one of them gets two-thirds of the votes. Then white smoke rises from a chimney.

The battle for the most critical earthly post in Catholic Christendom has long since begun. Almost all 135 cardinals eligible to vote are already in Rome. The netting is now underway in the Papal States, a mere 0.44 square kilometers area with many side streets. The next few days could be decisive.

Many of the cardinals are electing a pope for the first time
The election is considered more open than it has been for decades because the conclave is more international than ever. In addition, most cardinals are taking part for the first time. Francis has appointed more than 100 people in the last twelve years. He likes to appoint churchmen from countries such as Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), East Timor, and Mongolia. Only 53 now come from Europe.

Nevertheless, one favorite is the Italian Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s current number two. At 70, he would be a good age: the men in the red robes are reluctant to choose someone who can stay for a very long time.

Parolin is regarded as an excellent diplomat and manager. That would speak in his favor if the middle of the three currently much-discussed scenarios prevails: someone must bring calm back to the Church. There is also the theory that after almost half a century of popes from Poland, Germany, and Argentina, it could be the turn of an Italian once again.

The other two scenarios are that if the cardinals continue to back reforms, a kind of Francis II will take office. Or the opposite: a conservative. As for so many things, there is a saying in Rome: “A thin one follows a fat pope.” But even more important is another old saying: “Whoever goes into the conclave as pope comes out as a cardinal.” So there are several other men in the running alongside Parolin.

The other Italians
Matteo Zuppi

As president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, the Archbishop of Bologna is already one of the central figures in the Catholic Church by his office. He was the Vatican mediator in the Ukraine war, albeit without much success. His diplomatic skills were called upon more than once when Francis unexpectedly made headlines. Zuppi is considered a reformer but can also have a balancing effect. At 69, he would be a good age.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

The Patriarch of Jerusalem heads one of the most difficult dioceses in the world: in the Holy Land, Christians are caught between the fronts. So he has experience as a bridge builder. Pizzaballa comes from the Franciscan order. At 60, he is one of the youngest “papabile.” That could speak against him.

The other Europeans:
Peter Erdö

The Primate of Hungary, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is a conservative. He was one of the few to be appointed by John Paul II. His name was already discussed in 2013 regarding the succession to Benedict XVI. He has been critical of the reforms since then. Erdö is considered more of an intellectual than a man of the people. At 72, he would still be the right age.

Jean-Marc Aveline

The Archbishop of Marseille is considered close to the people – a trait he shares with the late Pope. The Frenchman is also seen as someone who has much in common with Jorge Mario Bergoglio regarding style and politics. Some even call him a “super Bergoglian.” The 66-year-old would ensure that the legacy of the dead pontiff is continued.

Jean-Claude Hollerich

The Archbishop of Luxembourg is one of the most influential men in the Vatican. The 66-year-old sits on several vital dicasteries – the ministries in the Vatican, so to speak. At the most recent World Synod, he was a mediator as “Relator General.” One argument against him is that he comes from the Jesuit order, like Francis. Two Jesuits in a row would be unusual.

Cristóbal López Romero

The Spaniard could be one of the surprise candidates. He has been the Archbishop of Rabat in Morocco since 2017. Before that, he also worked as a missionary in Paraguay and Bolivia. The 72-year-old belongs to the religious order of the Salesians of Don Bosco (SDB). Defending the rights of migrants and dialogue with Islam are particularly close to his heart.

Anders Arborelius

The Bishop of Stockholm would be an extremely unusual pope. Born in Switzerland in 1949, he converted to the Catholic faith at the age of 20. Francis made him the first cardinal from Scandinavia and an advisor on ecumenical matters. In Germany, the Swede is known for his role as Apostolic Visitator investigating allegations against Cardinal Rainer Maria Woelki of Cologne.

José Tolentino de Mendonça

The curia cardinal from Portugal belongs to the progressive wing of the Catholic Church. He has recently had one of the steepest careers: in 2018, Francis appointed him supreme librarian; a year later, cardinal; and in 2022, head of the Dicastery for Culture and Education. De Mendonça is an intellectual, but he is also good with people. His age speaks against him: he will only be 60 this year.

The candidates from other continents
Luis Antonio Tagle

The former Archbishop of Manila is repeatedly named the most promising candidate should the election fall to an Asian for the first time. The 67-year-old was already under discussion in 2013. Like Francis, he is committed to a church on the side of the poor. Today, he is Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization in the Curia. However, his career recently took a turn for the worse: Francis removed him as head of international Caritas.

Charles Maung Bo

The 76-year-old also comes from Asia—from Myanmar, formerly Burma. His election would be a special sign: his home country has been mired in civil war and violence for years and just suffered a terrible earthquake. The Church could not show more compassion right now. The moderate conservative would also be a pretty perfect age. He also represents a large group of churchmen from distant countries.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

For some time now, there has been speculation that a pope could also come from Africa: a “black pope,” in other words. The Archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, is most frequently mentioned: Fridolin Ambongo Besungu. The 65-year-old is considered conservative. He takes a very critical view of the opening for the blessing of same-sex couples. However, he would be pretty young for a pope. And also without much experience in Rome.

Raymond Burke

The 76-year-old cardinal priest from the USA, former Archbishop of St. Louis, was considered one of Francis’ most formidable opponents. The conservative hardliner criticized even cautious reforms such as the blessing of homosexual couples. Some see Burke as Donald Trump’s candidate, despite his slim chances.

Robert Francis Prevost

The US-American, born in Chicago, heads the important dicastery for bishops as a curia cardinal. He was previously a missionary and bishop in Peru and prior general of the Augustinian Order. The 69-year-old could become a compromise candidate if the camps cannot agree.