First Corona infections likely as early as October 2019

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The first Corona infections in humans are likely to have occurred as early as between early October and mid-November 2019, according to calculations. However, officially confirmed infections did not occur until early December 2019.

According to new data modeling, the first human cases of Sars-CoV-2 likely occurred between about early October and mid-November 2019 in China. This is confirmed by an analysis presented in the journal PLOS Pathogens. According to the calculation, a date around November 17 is likely, the researchers report. Accordingly, the virus is likely to have spread much faster in the world than known after the first evidence.

Officially confirmed infections from early December 2019 in Wuhan
The first officially confirmed infections with the novel pathogen had been recorded in early December 2019 in the central Chinese metropolis of Wuhan. However, experts have long assumed that the virus was already circulating among humans before that. This assumption had also expressed the investigation team of the World Health Organization (WHO), which had searched in January and February in China for the origin of the virus.

Scientists led by David Roberts of the University of Kent in the United Kingdom calculated the most likely time period for the pathogen to jump from animals to humans based on data for the first confirmed cases in China and abroad. They used a mathematical model used in the conservation field to make predictions about species extinction.

Coronavirus likely to have spread worldwide as early as January 2020
According to the model, the virus is likely to have spread worldwide as early as January. According to the scientists’ calculations, the first infections outside of China could have occurred around Jan. 3 in Japan. The first case in Europe would have been according to their calculation in Spain around 12 January, the first in the USA around 16 January.

The scientists caution, however, that their conclusions “are only as good as the data that were used.” Factors such as the quality of the first available detection methods in each country are likely to have influenced the results, they say. In addition, many infections are asymptomatic – or with rather mild cold symptoms, with which people often did not see a doctor, especially at the beginning of the pandemic, and therefore were not tested.

Origin of the coronavirus still unknown
Exactly how Sars-CoV-2 passed to humans remains unclear. The majority of experts worldwide assume that the virus was transmitted from bats to humans via an as yet unknown intermediate host – such as tanuki in fur farms. In US politics in particular, however, the possibility of an accidental or deliberate origin in the laboratory is repeatedly raised – much to China’s displeasure.

Whether the actual course of events can still be clarified is uncertain – experts had noted several times that no analysis from China have been published on this so far. It is unclear whether data is being kept under lock and key or whether it simply does not exist.