Next Corona wave will hit the unvaccinated

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Although no closures would be necessary, the number of cases will be about the same as in previous waves, says the expert.

The number of new coronavirus infections in Austria continues to rise, infected people currently infect more than one other person. The next wave will be a wave among the unvaccinated, says epidemiologist Gerald Gartlehner on Thursday in the Ö1 “Morgenjournal”.

He, like complexity researcher Peter Klimek, considers an overload of intensive care units very unlikely. Large-scale closures will not be necessary in the fall, but protective measures such as wearing masks and keeping a distance will be. Klimek can imagine restrictions on choirs, indoor sports and nighttime dining, for example. An expansion of the 2G rule is also conceivable, he said.

General school closures are not epidemiologically necessary, the researcher tells the “Morgenjournal.” Both experts believe that the number of people recovered from coronavirus infection – more than 650,000 had been shown to be infected – is twice as high. In addition, nearly 55 percent of the total population has already received the full corona vaccine.

How the pandemic will develop in the fall is still unclear. In any case, Klimek expects fewer hospitalizations with the same number of cases as in previous waves. Whether this will be by a factor of two, three, four or five depends on the pandemic phase, the researcher said. Gartlehner emphasized that the next wave will affect unvaccinated people. Booster vaccination will be important, the epidemiologist said.

Earlier, Herwig Ostermann, managing director of Gesundheit Österreich (GÖG), also assessed the rising infection figures as not yet critical. As things stand, the healthcare system would be able to cope with 3,000 to 10,000 new infections a day without overloading intensive care units, he said in the “Kurier” newspaper. The age distribution in which the virus circulates is decisive here: The younger the infected population, the more infections can be tolerated.

  • source: heute.at/picture: pixabay.com
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