Experts expect a significant increase in new Corona infections in Austria in the coming weeks

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Experts from the Covid Prognosis Consortium predict a “significant increase” in new Corona infections in the coming week. A seven-day incidence of 210 to 290 is expected for Oct. 27.
A seven-day incidence of 210 to 290 cases per 100,000 population is expected for Oct. 27. That will lead to a corresponding increase in the burden on intensive care and normal care units, according to the document released Wednesday evening. It said there is a “highly dynamic situation” in Austria.

3,727 new corona infections on Wednesday.
Just from Tuesday to Wednesday, the seven-day incidence nationwide had risen from 183 to 195. There were 3,727 new cases, the highest value since this year’s March. Based on the prevailing situation, an update to the forecast could be made on Friday, the consortium of experts from the Vienna University of Technology, the Medical University of Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH announced. Currently, the lowest incidence in a week is expected in Burgenland, with values ranging from 100 to 170, and the highest in Salzburg, with 280 to 450.

Increase in infections observable in all age groups
“The increase in reported new infections observed in almost all age groups and provinces suggests the occurrence of seasonal effects that amplify viral spread. This assessment is also supported by similar case trends in recent days in many other European countries,” the experts write. They add that there are also striking parallelisms with the development of the number of cases in the same period of the previous year.

“System-threatening development if this trend continues”
“A system-endangering development if this trend continues” is not ruled out. Time-delayed it would come to a corresponding increase of the occupation on intensive and normal stations. On November 3, Lower Austria with a probability of 20 percent, Salzburg and Vorarlberg with a probability of 15 percent and Vienna with a probability of 10 percent could exceed the critical utilization rate of 33 percent with Covid patients.

Similar increase in case numbers in October last year.
Last week, actual levels of new infections in Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg, as well as in Austria as a whole, were above the forecast, the consortium noted. In the previous year, a similar increase in case numbers had been observed in mid-October. In the pavement forecast for hospitals, only Tyrol, which was lower, showed deviations outside the stated range of variation.