Experts expect further unfavorable COVID 19 development

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The experts of the Covid forecast consortium commissioned by the Ministry of Health continue not to expect an easing of the infection situation. In the latest forecast published Wednesday (calculation date Nov. 2), the consortium pointed out that the effective reproduction number has been above one for four weeks. The consortium “continues to anticipate a significant increase” in seven-day incidence.

Thus, for the last forecast day on Nov. 10, a seven-day incidence of 540 to 740 cases per 100,000 population is expected, with a seven-day incidence of 620 as the mean. With a probability of 2.5 percent, an incidence above 810 or below 470 is also possible. Experts expect the lowest incidence in Vienna at 280 to 450, and the highest in Upper Austria at 820 to 1,300.

The trend will also lead to a further increase in hospital exposures. On November 17, according to the experts, Vienna will exceed the occupancy limit of 33 percent in intensive care and normal wards with a probability of 60 percent, Vorarlberg with a probability of 30 percent, and Carinthia and Upper Austria with a probability of 25 percent.

  • source: derstandard.at/picture:pixabay.com
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