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The infection situation in Austria will not calm down in the coming weeks – that is the essence of the Covid 19 forecast and capacity preview of the forecasting consortium, which was published on Wednesday. For the experts, the reason lies primarily in the far-reaching relaxations; after all, as of last Saturday, night catering was opened, the mask requirement was lifted in many areas, and access rules were also largely relaxed. “The current forecast assumes an increase in the incidence of infection, which is driven by the opening steps of 5.3. and 19.2. as well as the increasing dominance of the omicron subtype BA.2,” the forecast reads.
“Thus, for the current forecast, an acceleration of the fall observed last week is expected due to the opening steps of 5.3,” the expert‘s forecast. A likely consequence, they say, is that the previous peak seven-day incidence of 2630 will be exceeded on 1 February 2022. Specifically, this means that there could be a seven-day incidence around or even above 3000 in Austria next Wednesday (16 March). The calculated confidence interval is between 2398 and 3948; the point estimate is 2992 new infections within seven days per 100,000 inhabitants. By comparison, the current seven-day incidence in Austria is 2559.4.
Numbers also rise in regular wards
Complexity researcher Peter Klimek, a member of the prognosis consortium, said last week on ZiB 2: “In terms of measures, this is a tightrope walk right now. The situation in the hospitals is stable enough to keep the opening steps reasonable. On the other hand, we have enormously high infection rates from a disease that often still enough leads to severe courses.”
And meanwhile, patient numbers in hospitals are also on the rise. In intensive care units, the numbers are similar to recently – currently, 182 people are being treated in intensive care units. But in the normal wards, the trend is upwards. There are presently 2582 Covid 19 patients being treated there, and according to the forecast, there could be more than 3000 people in the coming week. The fluctuation range for 16 March is between 2562 and 3218, for 23 March between 2591 and 3896. In addition, the hospitals are also burdened by staff absences.
And there is another indicator that shows the accelerating pace of infections: The effective reproduction rate – that is, the average number of people infected by an infected person. This had been declining up to calendar week eight – for both Omicron variants. Between calendar weeks eight and nine, however, there was a reversal of the trend: “For BA.1, the effective reproduction number increased from about 0.89 to 0.96 from week eight to week nine, while for BA.2 it increased from 1.13 to 1.19.”
This means that more people are becoming infected with the virus, infecting more people. And because of the higher incidence of infection, more people also have to be treated in hospitals, even though Omicron generally causes milder courses.
- source: kleinezeitung.at/picture: pixabay.com
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