Corona forecast: this is what the experts expect after Easter

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The COVID forecasting consortium expects a continued decline in Corona numbers after the Easter vacations.

“Data from both effluent monitoring and EMS consistently indicate a downward trend in infection incidence,” the COVID Forecast Consortium notes in its latest preview. With 2,595 new Corona infections reported, the number had almost halved compared to the previous week, when 4,035 new Corona cases were reported.

It’s a trend that experts expect to continue until after the Easter holiday.

Using its model calculations, the consortium also predicts that the steady decline in COVID incidence in normal and intensive care units will continue. “In the area of normal care, as of the end of the forecast period on April 12, the level of occupied beds across Austria is expected to be in the range of 638 to 1,019, with a mean of 806 beds,” the document states.

The country’s critical level of 33% utilization of intensive care beds is projected at 0.5 percent. But this is also only under the assumption that hospitals’ admission and discharge regime remains unchanged.

Since November 11, 2020, the country reporting to the BMSGPK has been the primary data source for current occupancy and additional capacity. This allows both abilities that can be used for COVID and capabilities that can be made available within seven days to be represented in the pavement forecast. Unavailable values are taken from the SKKM country report to BMI.