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Forecast shows: El Niño will continue to bring heat until May
Although the phenomenon has been active since June 2023 and peaked in December, the WMO suggests that the effects will be felt in the spring despite a slow weakening.
El Niño and its lasting effects
The El Niño weather phenomenon, characterized by a warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to cause “above-average temperatures” across “almost all land areas” of the world by May, according to UN experts. This phenomenon occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. El Niño can intensify the global temperature increases already caused by climate change, leading to more extreme weather.
Catalyst for climate change
Last year, which the WMO described as the hottest on record, was influenced by climate change and El Niño, according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. The current weather phenomenon is one of the five strongest since records began, and experts estimate that it could continue to influence global temperatures.
Outlook and uncertainties
While the WMO points out that the current El Niño is still one of the strongest, it remains unclear whether its counterpart, La Niña, will follow suit and have a cooling effect. However, UN experts estimate the probability of neutral conditions prevailing from April to June to be 80 percent.
The world faces an ongoing challenge as El Niño leaves its mark in the form of persistent record heat. Experts are closely monitoring developments as the impact of the weather phenomenon on global climate change remains in focus.
- source: wetter.at/picture: Bild von Gerd Altmann auf Pixabay
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