Corona forecasting experts see a downward trend

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Experts at the Covid forecasting consortium continue to see a downward trend in Corona infection numbers next week.

But the case trend is characterized by diametric dynamics. On the one hand, there is the seasonal effect, and on the other, immune protection acquired through infection or vaccination continues to decline. In the medium term, experts expect declining protection to dominate.

Corona forecasters see a continuing downward trend
The timing and strength of this effect cannot be precisely quantified at this time, the current forecast states. According to the experts, both slight increases and slight decreases are possible in the forecast for the coming week. Further slight declines are also potential in the number of Covid 19 patients in hospitals.

Variants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12 classified as cause for concern
Virus variants BA.4/BA.5 and BA.2.12. are now classified as variants of concern by the ECDC and are already dominant or about to become so in some world regions. According to international observational data, these variants are likely to have growth advantages over their predecessors. The proportion of these variants increases in Austria and is already expected to be around eight percent in Vienna, for example, the forecast says.

Forecasts for seven-day incidence next Wednesday
A seven-day incidence in 130 to 210 cases per 100,000 population is now expected for next Wednesday, with 160 given as the mean. The lowest incidence is expected in Vorarlberg (81 to 130) and the highest incidence in Vienna (200 to 330). Experts predict there will be between 1,661 and 2,734 new infections next Wednesday, with 2,072.

Decrease to 309 Corona patients expected on normal wards
On normal wards, a decline to 309 infected patients is expected by June 8; as of today (Wednesday), 505 who tested positive still required hospital care. Experts estimate that the number of covid intensive care patients should decrease from 44 today to 33 within the next two weeks. However, due to the current meager exposure numbers, it was stressed that usual weekday fluctuations could lead to high relative deviations.

  • sources: APA/vienna.at/picture: pixabay.com
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